Jun. 10, 2018

A conundrum – damned if you do and damned if you don’t

Leonard Krog had not officially announced his run for the mayor’s chair in Nanaimo when amateur pundits began serving up scenarios and conspiracies for a provincial byelection.

The one I like was the suggestion that the Greens not run anyone in Nanaimo to ensure that the NDP retain the seat – and by extension remain in government in co-operation with the Greens. Makes perfect sense, right?

Well, let’s analyze that for a moment. The next provincial election could be under a new voting process based on the total votes each party gets in the election. That’s how appointed MLAs would be determined.

With that in mind, would the Greens entertain for even a millisecond that they stand back while the NDP built up its base in Nanaimo, totally unopposed?

If you believe that, you could go to Las Vegas and get some astronomical odds on that one, if they would even take the bet.

The electoral reform plan, if it passes, will change a lot of things forever, including strategic (gang) voting.

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Before people get all wound up about the provincial government collapsing, don't get into a sweat. The Legislature is in summer recess now, so no votes of non=confidence can be held until the fall session.

It makes sense for Krog to keep his seat in the Legislature until after he finds out whether he wins the Nanaimo mayoralty. Even then, that would not put the coalition in a minority.

On top of that, there are predictions that Rich Coleman of the Liberals will follow suit and try for the Surrey mayor's job. In that case, it's a sawoff, back to the same odds we have now. Premier Horgan might well take his sweet time before calling byelections.