Sep. 11, 2019

Ontario and Quebec likely hold the key to who wins the election

The race is on, we’re into an election campaign to determine who will govern our country for four years, or less.

But will the election really make a difference, will our vote in Western Canada make any difference? Over the next few weeks we will see more polls than we can comprehend. The accuracy is one of the things in question – many of those polls are conducted for and by the parties themselves, designed to present a positive picture heading to the polls.

I rely on Calculatedpolitics.ca due to the fact that it is an average of all public polls. The latest aggregate of polls shows the Liberals could be headed for a majority government.

The Liberals have edged ahead of the Conservatives, 34.6% to 33.2%. and appear to be in majority territory with 172 projected seats, two more than needed for a majority. Even with almost equal over-all support, the Conservatives appear headed for 127 seats. The interesting picture is how the NDP and Green Party are battling for support. The NDP is down to 13.5% while the Greens are at 10.2%.  But the NDP is projected to get 24 seats while Green projections have dropped to three.

The difference in seats compared to the popular vote between the Liberals and Conservatives is based on population in Ontario and Quebec resulting in more seats. In other words, and this has always been the case, those two provinces determine who will govern the country. In this case, Ontarians and Quebecois are strongly favouring the Liberals.

HERE AT HOME, pretty well since the federal byelection in spring, voter support in Nanaimo-Ladysmith has remained fairly steady with new MP Paul Manly maintaining a healthy lead by as much as eight points. But in politics, anything can change on a dime, and it’s starting to look like there may be a race after all. Manly had more than 35 per cent support in the byelection, and that remained fairly steady. 

This week’s Calculatedpolitics.ca poll showed the New Democrat and Conservative candidates, while maintaining their support they’ve had all along, are now within three points of the Green Party. The most notable is Manly’s decline had been reflected in minor increases for the Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats.

The latest poll, on Sept. 5 compared to Aug. 30
Paul Manly (Green) 28% -2
Bob Chamberlin (New Democrat) 25% Unch
John Hirst (Conservative) 25% Unch
Michelle Corfield (Liberal) 19% +2