Oct. 2, 2019

Polls prove unreliable in Nanaimo-Ladysmith election

1003 - The federal election is heading into the home stretch with 19 days left and in Nanaimo-Ladysmith it's either a dead heat or a landslide victory for Paul Manly.

The latest polls bear out that either one or both polls are totally out to lunch.

The 338Canada.com project has Manly running away with it at 38.5 per cent voter support while Conservative candidate John Hirst sits agt 21.8 per cent and NDP Bob Chamberlin at 20.1 per cent. That's an increase for Manly since the May 6 byelection and a drop for Hirst and Chamberlin.

Calculated Politics, on the other hand, an aggregation of all public polls in the country, shows Manly, Hirst and Chamberlin in a dead heat at 27 per cent each. The CalculatedPolitics.com poll was right on target during the May byelection, showing Manly with a big margin. He matched the poll prediction at that time.

Both polls have Liberal candidate Michelle Corfield at 17-18 per cent support.

This demonstrates emphatically that the race is not over until the final ballot is counted. It also shows the importance of voters doing their homework and checking out the candidates and their platforms. It also shows how unreliable polls can be.

The Oct. 10 Chamber of Commerce candidate forum at Beban Park can be a crucial point in the election when voters have a chance to hear and meet all the candidates. The podium will have candidates from parties with members in the last Parliament - Liberal, Conservative, New Democrat and Green Party. The meet and greet starts at 5:30 p.m. and the candidate forum at 7 p.m.