Oct. 5, 2019

Election polls: Somebody is way off base

1005 - It probably depends on whether you are projected as winning or losing, but the two main election polls we are following paint a totally contradicatory picture. 

The Calculated Politics aggregation of all public polls show Conservative John Hirst has moved into the lead with 28 per cent support while NDP's Bob Chamberlin sits at 27 per cent. Green Party candidate Paul Manly is in third place with 25 per cent. Liberal Michelle Corfield trails at 18 per cent. That was Friday – by Saturday, Chamberlin was in the lead at 28 points with Hirst at 27 and Manly at 24.

Then you switch to the Saturday 338Canada poll and it shows Manly with a commanding lead with 37.8 per cent support while Hirst is in second at 22.6 and Chamberlin third at 19.8, ahead of Corfield at 17.4 per cent.

There's comfort in the knowledge that the only poll that really counts is the one by you when you vote on Oct. 21.