Mar. 13, 2020

What's toilet paper got to do with it?

Perhaps it is us just me and my contrarian nature, but this “run” on toilet paper got me a little confused.  

Are we having a collective panic attack over a serious corona virus? 

 An average of 50,000 die every year in the US from the regular flu, 100 a day from traffic accidents, same number for opioid use. 

So far coronavirus has taken 29 in the US, not per day but since the disease began, according to WHO. There are 320 million people in the USA. 

Yes, it is very serious, given no vaccine and the contagious nature of the disease. But panic? Hysteria? 

I mean normally rational Angela Merkel projects 55 million Germans being infected. Others with similar predictions.  

Not facts. 

Perhaps a little caution is in order given that China seems to have the matter under control, and South Korea. How about Russia – 20 confirmed cases no deaths – 144 million people. They closed their borders early. Wonder if that has something to do with it. China’s 3,000 deaths out of 1.4 billion. 

While every death is a tragedy we must put all of this in some context and respond with firmness and common sense and evade exaggeration and hype.  

When Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health testified before the Congress yesterday he was asked about the prediction by a Congressional Doctor of 70 to 150 million being infected in the US he said this:

“I think we really need to be careful with those kinds of predictions, because that’s based on a model,” Fauci replied.

“So, all models are as good as the assumptions that you put into the mode, it’s unpredictable. So, testing now is not going to tell me how many cases you are going to have. What will tell you what you’re going to have will be how you respond to it with containment and mitigation,” he continued.

Imagine, what a prediction 70 to 150 – lots of wiggle room there. Its meaningless and unscientific. 

And we all know about models and how we are supposed to be out of food, an ice-free Arctic, a flooding east coast of America – and no polar bears.

So, perhaps we need to roll back that toilet paper – just a little bit.